X'te AMA

The US market would have gone nowhere for years if not for #Al #stocks : The #S&P 500 ex. Al stocks has returned just 25% over the last 3 years, since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. This is ~8% annual return, an even weaker performance than the #S&P500 equal-weighted index. $NVDAX $GOOGLX $MSFTON

The global equity market has been historically resilient: The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) has now gone 159 trading days without a -5% pullback, the longest streak since 2016-2018. This index covers 23 Developed Markets and 24 Emerging Markets, capturing ~85% of global investable equity. This has now exceeded the 145-day run seen in 2021 and marks the 3rd-strongest stretch since 2008. During this streak, the ACWI index has rallied +28.6% and is trading near its all-time high. By comparison, the average annual gain over the last 37 years has been +8.8%. Global risk appetite is exceptionally robust. #stocks $NVDAX $MSFTON $GOOGLX

Foreign investors are buying US equities at a record pace: Private investors outside the US purchased a record +$646.8 billion of US equities in the 12 months ending in September 2025. Purchases have doubled since the start of the year. This is now 66% ABOVE the+$390.0 billion high seen in 2021. Meanwhile, foreign private-investor purchases of US Treasuries were +$492.7 billion during the same period. Rolling 12-month non-US buying of Treasuries has remained above +$400 billion for 4 straight years. Everyone wants US assets. $NVDAX $MSFTON $METAX #stocks

December is a historically strong month for #stocks : Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 73.2% of the time in December, the highest win rate of any month. In other words, only 26 of the last 97 years have seen negative returns. Over this period, the index has returned an average gain of +1.28%. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has gained +1.50% in December on average. Record highs may be on the horizon. $NVDAX $GOOGLX $MSFTON #DecemberRateCutForecast

What is driving massive job cuts in the US? US-based employers have announced 1,099,500 job cuts in the first 10 months of 2025, the 2nd-highest since 2009. 20.9% of those layoffs were driven by "unfavorable" market and economic conditions. 7.0% of job cuts were made to reduce costs, while 4.4% were as result of Al. In October alone, US companies announced 153,074 job cuts, the worst October in 22 years. 32.9% of October's cuts were due to cost-cutting, 20.3% due to Al, and 13.8% due to market and economic conditions. #Al automation is only part of the narrative for layoffs $GOOGLX $MSFTON ‌#stocks