. Overall crypto market right now
Macro picture
BTC is a bit below its recent highs but still very elevated.
Total crypto market cap is holding around the multi-trillion level, not crashing, more like sideways / corrective after a big run-up.
Fear & Greed Index is in the “fear” to “extreme fear” zone depending on the provider (roughly 20–40 range). That means people are nervous, de-risking after earlier hype.
BTC perpetual funding rates are near flat / slightly positive, so no crazy overcrowded long or short; derivatives positioning is fairly balanced.
What your portfolio
Most large caps (BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, ADA, LINK, SUI, NEAR, ATOM, etc.) show small green 24h moves (+0.5–2%) – looks like a mild relief bounce, not a full trend reversal.
Some mid/small caps (ASTER, ONDO, AKT, CELO, XION etc.) are red on the day – classic behavior when money flows first into majors on a bounce, while high-risk alts lag.
This is typical of a market in early-to-mid correction inside a larger bull cycle:
BTC/ETH leading,
quality L1s / infra (SOL, NEAR, SUI, STRK, RENDER, AKT) in the middle,
microcaps (QUBIC, OM, GFI, XION, etc.) bleeding and very volatile.
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How I’d trade this environment
> Not financial advice – just a framework. Size small, use stops, never over-leverage.
A. Core thesis
1. Market phase: Risk-off inside a bigger bullish structure.
2. Sentiment: Fear = better for building positions in strong coins, not for YOLO leverage.
3. Strategy bias:
Spot: Accumulate strength on dips (BTC, ETH, top L1s, key narratives like RWA/AI).
Futures: Short-term, low-leverage, trade the range, not “all-in bull run” mode.
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B. Spot plan based on your list
I’d mentally group your coins like this:
1) “Foundation” bag (lowest risk in crypto terms)
BTC, ETH
Optional adds: BNB, SOL, LINK
Plan
DCA (weekly/bi-weekly) rather than trying to nail the exact bottom. Fear sentiment is your friend here.
Only buy when price is near recent local support on the daily chart (check your app: prior swing lows / EMAs).
Goal: Hold through 2026 cycle, don’t panic sell on normal corrections.
2) “Growth” bag (higher beta majors)
XRP, ADA, SUI, NEAR, APT, ATOM, RENDER, AKT, HBAR, STRK, ONDO, CELO, KAS, GT
Narrative notes (very short):
ONDO / GFI / CELO – RWA, tokenized treasuries / credit. Strong 2025–2026 narrative if RWAs keep growing.
STRK, ZRO – L2 / infra plays; more speculative but interesting roadmap.
SUI, NEAR, APT, KAS – high-performance L1s. Compete with SOL narrative.
RENDER, AKT – decentralized compute / AI infrastructure.
HBAR, XRP – institutional/settlements angle, but price action can be slow and news-driven.
Plan
Use smaller position sizes than BTC/ETH.
Buy only when they are outperforming BTC on the chart (their BTC pair making higher lows). If they are bleeding vs BTC, let them bleed and focus on BTC/ETH.
Target swing trades: 20–50% moves rather than “I’ll hold forever”. Have take-profit targets.
3) “Lottery” bag (very high risk)
QUBIC, S, W, RVN, OM, CFG, XION, VIRTUAL, BTT, ASTER, GFI, etc.
Plan
Treat these as lottery tickets: max maybe 5–10% of total portfolio combined.
Only buy when:
Clear uptrend on 4H/daily, and
Volume spikes (new narrative or listing).
Always decide exit levels in advance (e.g., -25% hard cut, +100% take half).
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C. Futures trading plan
Given fear and choppy PA, I’d avoid aggressive futures on tiny caps and stick to:
BTC, ETH, SOL, ONDO, STRK – liquid enough, decent narrative.
1) Directional bias
With sentiment fearful but not capitulated and BTC still holding high prices, I see range-trading conditions, not a clear new macro trend.
Good approach: Fade extremes of the range (short near strong resistance, long near strong support) instead of chasing breakouts.
2) Concrete rules you can apply
Risk & leverage
Max 3–5x leverage on BTC/ETH, less or none for alts.
Risk ≤1–2% of your account per trade (distance from entry to stop × position size).
Long setups
Use this when BTC/ETH pull back inside the bigger range:
Wait for liquidity sweep below previous local low on the 1H/4H, then quick reclaim.
Confirm with:
Funding near neutral or slightly negative (not crowded longs).
Fear index still in fear zone (dip buyers shy).
Enter long with stop below the swept low, target the mid-range or prior high.
Short setups
Use this when the market spikes after news or during relief rallies:
Price pushes into a previous strong 4H/daily supply zone and stalls (multiple wicks, declining volume).
Funding flips strongly positive and perp OI spikes (too many late longs).
Enter short, stop just above the wick, target mid-range or prior support.
Pairs to focus on from your list
BTC / ETH perps – main “engine”, best liquidity.
SOL, ONDO, STRK, RENDER – good when narrative is active, but size smaller.
Avoid heavy leverage on illiquid names like QUBIC, CFG, XION, GFI – easy to get wicked out.
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D. When to not trade
When BTC is sitting exactly in the middle of its recent range, no clear edge.
When big macro news is imminent (Fed, ETF flows data, major regulatory event) – spreads widen and wicks get crazy.
When you’ve hit your daily loss limit (e.g., -3% of account) – stop for the day.
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