【Writing is not easy, read it carefully】
[Heart] 1: Why did it fall this time?
1: Since the rebound from 56500, the bullish momentum has been significantly lower than before. The reason why it rebounded smoothly is that there wasn't too much selling pressure and resistance from the bears in the 60000-70000 range because the previous whipsaw process had eliminated many cutting-losses and panic sellers. Therefore, there were not too many obstacles in this range. However, it will be difficult for the bulls to break through the strong resistance at 72000-73000 without enough buying volume, because this range is where the previous trapped chips and bears' main position were. The bottoming-out of the bulls without enough volume is not sustainable, so the bears will undoubtedly hinder the longs' breakeven and dumping when the price rebounds to this level.
2: From the structure judgment, a rising market can be divided into a five-wave structure. The rebound from 56500 to the resistance zone of 72000-73000 just completed the rising five-wave structure, so there will be a three-wave retracement here.
3: Non-farm data unexpectedly cold, causing panic in the market. After the unfavorable information landed, many retail investors chose to take profits and exit at the high level, and the market maker also took this opportunity to whipsaw, getting whipsawed out of positions with unsteady chips, lightening the load for a better upward movement in the market.
[Heart] 2: Why does the imitation fall more than BTC?
1: Due to the centralization of on-exchange funds, ETFs have attracted billions of dollars of funds globally since their inception. The main benefit is BTC, including the recent continuous buying actions by institutions such as BlackRock. What they are buying is BTC, not those dog coins, so the BTC chips are more solid.
2: Retail investors are more inclined to invest in altcoin zones. These chips are not stable, and once there is any movement, panic selling and stampede will occur. Market makers will take this opportunity to suppress and whip-saw the market, so every time there is a pullback, altcoins in the early stage will lead the decline of BTC.
3: Each time the altcoin adjusts, it will lead the fall in the early stage. There is no need to panic excessively at this point. The altcoins are currently at the bottom of the early stage, and there is not much downward space. At this time, the opportunity is greater than the risk. Like the previous fall, many altcoins have already bottomed out on April 14th. Even if the big cake falls in the future market, the altcoins will not fall with it. When the market shows differentiation, the big cake's long wick candle liquidation contract triggering panic will also be a signal of the end of the adjustment.
[Love] 3: Interpretation of Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Divergence
1: Both of these are rebounds in response to the latest US employment data, reflecting the current economic situation in the US. Therefore, the focus of this bull market speculation is interest rate cuts. The stagnant US economy cannot sustain high interest rates for a long time, so inflation and economic downturn will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. The better-than-expected non-farm payroll data shows the resilience of the economy, which is unfavorable for interest rate cuts, causing market panic and a bearish downturn.
2: Canada and Europe in G7 countries have successively lowered interest rates, which has led many people to withdraw their money and choose a better investment plan to bring themselves better returns. At this time, the purpose of the Americans pouring cold water is to express that their economy is very strong, while others are lowering interest rates, they are not, maintaining high interest rates to attract capital outflows from countries that have lowered interest rates.
3: Looking at the actual US economy through its essence, the strong non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment rate are outrageous data. Putting aside the authenticity, the logic behind the data is as follows: for example, Zhang San was originally a full-time employee of a state-owned enterprise, but now he has been laid off and unemployed. At this time, the unemployment rate increases by 1, but after being laid off, Zhang San takes on three part-time jobs for survival. At this time, non-farm employment increases by 3. By now, everyone should understand that it's just a difference in statistical methods. Moreover, most of the data for non-farm employment comes from immigrants. Many immigrants choose to work multiple jobs in the short term to generate more revenue. In the end, they accumulate wealth and return to their roots. Therefore, from the logic behind it, the current US economy is not doing well, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will persist.
[爱心]Four: Is the bull market still there, and which stage is it currently in?
From the technical, fundamental, news, capital, macro and other dimensions, the bull market has not reached its peak yet. It can be simply divided into two stages (see the chart). I believe that we are currently in the days before the start of the second stage after the halving, and we are now at the foot of the second stage. This adjustment will also be the last whipsaw before the start of the second stage. After panic selling and shaking off unstable chips, the market will break through 73,000 with one breath and start the bull run of the second stage.
[Love] 5: How will the market go next?
Last week, 72000-73000 has repeatedly reminded the fish tail market, the high risk is greater than the opportunity, after the rise of the five-wave structure, it will make a perfect prediction of the three-wave pullback. The market's trading volume was low on Saturday and Sunday, and the overall market remains weak and bearish. This week, the focus is on CPI and Powell's speech. If the dot chart maintains 3 interest rate cuts, it will be positive for the market and there will not be a deep adjustment here. If the dot chart shows 2 interest rate cuts, it will meet market expectations. If the dot chart shows 1 interest rate cut or Powell's hawkish comments are unfavorable for the market, there will be a deep retracement. In the short term, BTC focuses on the support of the three-wave decline from 66000-67000. If the support is broken, it can be seen at 64200. This area has strong support. If the support is not broken, the indicator will show a divergence at the bottom and welcome a rebound. The Ether ETF will be available for trading as soon as the end of the month, when a large amount of off-exchange funds will come in. If you don't have spot, pay attention to around 3500/3300/3100 and build a position in batches. The long-term target is 6000. At this moment, the opportunity is greater than the risk, so lay out in batches on dips and wait for the second stage of the bull market to start.
