According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin fell to $73,500 on Monday (November 8), touching the 20-week moving average within the bull market support band, but the bottom of Q4 may still lie ahead. Bitcoin's weekly close has dropped back below the 50-week moving average, a bearish signal Cowen highlighted, and the current bounce appears more consistent with relief rallies within downtrends than a sustained recovery.

Cowen noted the 50-week moving average breakout this cycle achieved only about 10% gains before reversing, significantly weaker than the roughly 30% rallies seen in 2019 and 2023. He points to a historical pattern of Bitcoin weakness in Q4 during midterm election years and expects selling pressure to persist through an anticipated pressure window in December, around the Federal Reserve's next decision.

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