According to Barclays analyst Dan Levy, today, October 16, a SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement could come before the end of 2026. The analyst noted that Tesla must hold its annual shareholder meeting by December 6 per SEC regulations, making it an ideal timing for shareholders to vote on the transaction. Levy indicated that if the announcement is delayed to late October or early November, shareholder approval at the meeting could become more difficult, though the deal would not fall through and could close within 6 to 12 months. Investors prefer completing the transaction under the Trump administration, seen as more favorable to mergers and acquisitions. Levy highlighted AI vertical integration as a core driver, noting that Tesla's physical AI, including robotaxi and Optimus, complements SpaceX's virtual AI like Grok, both supplied by TeraFactory chip production. Regarding ownership structure, Musk holds approximately 20% of Tesla and 48% of SpaceX (with 82% voting control via super-voting Class B shares). If SpaceX acquires Tesla at current valuations, Musk would own 37% of the combined entity with 56% voting control.
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