According to BofA Securities strategist Michael Hartnett, the bank is turning to a more cautious stance, expecting market risks to rise over the next three to four weeks amid economic, political and credit market pressures. Hartnett cited multiple destabilizing factors including 3% real yields, ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, volatile oil prices, and potential Democratic victories in upcoming elections. Corporate credit markets are showing warning signs, with credit default swap spreads widening and stock prices of AI-heavy companies weakening. Hartnett predicts the Federal Reserve may raise rates this month to rebuild policy credibility after inflation remained above the 2% target for 66 consecutive months, though markets widely expect rates to hold steady.

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