According to Google, in October 2026, Willow achieved a 40-fold reduction in magic-state errors and achieved 99.99% logical fidelity, advancing the pathway toward fault-tolerant quantum computing. The demonstration, published in Science, moved quantum states from distance-3 color code into distance-5 surface code, demonstrating concrete progress in error correction techniques required for cryptographic attacks.

Google's March 2026 whitepaper estimated that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography—roughly 20 times below earlier projections. Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation placed at least a 10% probability on a quantum machine recovering a secp256k1 private key from an exposed public key by 2032, while Haseeb Qureshi argued capable machines could arrive by the end of this decade. Approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin, roughly one-third of total supply, sit in wallets with exposed public keys already visible on the blockchain, creating future vulnerability.

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