According to Israeli.com polling aggregate and Polymarket prediction market, on October 27, Israeli opposition party Yashar is leading in polls with 22.4 seats projected, significantly ahead of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party at 19.4 seats. Both parties fall short of the 61-seat parliamentary majority needed to form government.

The Yashar party, led by former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, holds a 72% probability of becoming the largest party and a 50% chance of Eisenkot becoming prime minister, according to Polymarket. Financial markets are monitoring the election outcome as a potential turning point for Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, with analysts predicting that a shift in government could reduce risk premiums embedded in global oil prices and ease inflation pressures worldwide.

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