Morgan Stanley Estimates AI Capital Expenditure Reaches $1.58 Trillion in 2027 When Including Leasing Costs

According to Morgan Stanley's latest research report released on October 17, when including data center leasing financing in the calculation, hyperscalers and neocloud providers' total AI computing investment for 2027 reaches approximately $1.58 trillion, expanding about 14% compared to traditional cash capex metrics. The research indicates that AI capex will drive approximately 5% of S&P 500 revenues in 2027 and contribute roughly 25% of revenue growth.

The study reveals that $1.58 trillion in capex results from previously undercounted leasing arrangements, with hyperscalers having disclosed over $1.1 trillion in unrealized lease commitments. Morgan Stanley estimates 2027 leasing capex alone at $195 billion. The report suggests this comprehensive accounting represents a significant gap between reported and actual AI infrastructure investment levels, with investment growth reaching approximately 60% between 2026 and 2027.

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