According to Benzinga, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest said on November 12 that NVIDIA's projected five-year annualized return could fall from above 50% to 25% if the company's GPU market share declines from 83% to 38%. Wood noted that ARK previously estimated NVIDIA's market share would drop to 49%, later raising that assumption to 53% after factoring in SpaceX's orbital computing plans. "If we adjust the market share assumption down to 38%, the five-year compound annual return rate would fall from over 50% to 25%," Wood stated, calling it a "very conservative scenario." She cited Tesla, Broadcom, and Cerebras as potential competitors, though she expects AI firms like OpenAI and Anthropic to sustain market demand.

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