Oil Price Impact on Core Inflation Surges Post-Pandemic, Fed Report Shows Coefficient Jumps to 0.65

According to a Federal Reserve report released on November 9, the impact of oil price shocks on core inflation in advanced economies has significantly strengthened since the pandemic, with the persistence coefficient rising from 0.30 to 0.65. The report, authored by economists Andrea Michellis and Musa Oak, found that a permanent 10% increase in oil prices would now raise core inflation by 0.35 percentage points within three years, compared to only 0.05 percentage points pre-pandemic—a sevenfold increase.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller cited the report as key evidence for his argument that the central bank should consider a 50 basis-point rate hike next month. Waller emphasized that energy price pressures are now transmitted to goods and services prices in more persistent ways than historically observed, and monetary policymakers should not assume such shocks will quickly fade.

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