Seoul forex dealers on the 9th expect the USD/KRW exchange rate may rise further in the 1,360 won range, driven by a US employment data surprise released on the night of the 6th that expanded expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. The stronger-than-expected jobs report fueled global dollar strength, prompting dealers to anticipate additional upside if short position covering emerges. However, export company selling at the elevated level—the highest in a month—may cap gains during intraday trading.
NDF Market Records 1,363.90 Won Close
The 1-month USD/KRW non-deliverable forward (NDF) contract closed at 1,363.90 won (MID) in the New York market. Accounting for the recent 1-month swap point of -0.75 won, this represents an increase of 8.05 won from the prior Seoul spot market close of 1,356.60 won. Dealers projected the trading range for the day at 1,355.00 to 1,372.00 won.
Bank Dealers Forecast 1,355~1,372 Won Range
A Bank Dealer
US employment indicators exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations. If speculative demand that bet on won strength engages in short covering, upward pressure could intensify. However, if foreign selling of domestic stocks subsides following Friday's partial tech stock recovery and export company selling emerges, the upper range will face resistance. Forecast range: 1,357.00~1,372.00 won.
B Bank Dealer
Following dollar strength pressure, option market bets on rate increases and short covering by foreigners who bet on won strength are expected to heighten upward pressure on USD/KRW. However, the 1,360 won level is sufficiently attractive for exporters. The upper limit will be capped around 1,370 won. Forecast range: 1,360.00~1,371.00 won.
C Bank Dealer
Dollar strength from the US employment surprise could push rates to the mid-to-upper 1,360 won range. However, tech stock rebounds in the New York market and partial recovery in risk appetite will limit the upside. Authorities' fine-tuning for speed adjustment also warrants caution. Forecast range: 1,355.00~1,368.00 won.
FAQ
What caused Seoul forex dealers to expect USD/KRW to rise past 1,360 won?
US employment data released on the night of the 6th exceeded expectations, expanding forecasts for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and fueling global dollar strength. Dealers anticipate additional upside if short position covering emerges.
What factors may limit USD/KRW gains in the 1,360 won range?
Export company selling at the elevated level—the highest in a month—is expected to cap intraday gains. Partial recovery in tech stocks on Friday and reduced foreign selling of domestic equities may also provide downside support.
