President Donald Trump stated on Monday that the Iran War is 'militarily effectively over.' Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned last night that the Fed could consider a 50-basis-point rate hike in December if October inflation data show persistent pressure. Waller's warning stems from concerns about stubborn inflation that could justify aggressive monetary tightening, while Trump's statement followed a White House meeting with Qatar's prime minister where he indicated negotiations were moving in a positive direction. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders raised the odds of a US Treasury Bitcoin purchase this year to 13%. The developments put geopolitics, monetary policy, and Bitcoin adoption under renewed market scrutiny as investors weigh the potential impact of easing Middle East tensions against the possibility of higher borrowing costs.
Trump States Iran War Militarily Effectively Over
Trump told reporters on Monday that the Iran War was 'militarily effectively over,' suggesting Washington sees little immediate need for further military action. Speaking at the White House after meeting Qatar's prime minister, Trump said negotiations were moving in a positive direction. He also suggested that an agreement could bring the conflict to an end fairly soon.
Washington has not completely ruled out further strikes. Trump said American forces remained ready to respond if circumstances changed, keeping some uncertainty around the negotiations.
Oil prices followed with a decline. Brent crude fell 5.85% last night before slipping another 1.7% to around $90.99 per barrel this morning. The retreat reflects easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Waller Warns Fed Could Consider 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike in December
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said last night the Fed could consider a 50-basis-point increase in December if October inflation data show persistent pressure in core prices. He warned that delivering only a 25-basis-point increase could undermine the Fed's credibility if core inflation remains stubbornly high.
Waller currently leans toward a smaller increase if inflation improves. A 50-basis-point move would represent two standard quarter-point increases delivered in a single meeting. It would also show that policymakers remain prepared to prioritize inflation control over easing financial conditions.
Higher interest rates generally make speculative investments less attractive. Investors may favor cash and yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise, and liquidity becomes more expensive.
Kalshi Odds for US Treasury Bitcoin Purchase Reach 13%
Kalshi odds for a US Treasury Bitcoin purchase this year have climbed to 13%. The market reflects speculation that Washington could move beyond its existing Bitcoin reserve framework and acquire additional BTC.
The prediction market pricing represents growing interest in the possibility of direct US government Bitcoin buying, though no official policy announcement has been made.
FAQ
What did Trump say about the Iran War on Monday?
Trump told reporters on Monday that the Iran War was 'militarily effectively over,' suggesting Washington sees little immediate need for further military action. Speaking at the White House after meeting Qatar's prime minister, Trump said negotiations were moving in a positive direction and that an agreement could bring the conflict to an end fairly soon.
What rate hike did Waller warn the Fed could consider in December?
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said last night the Fed could consider a 50-basis-point increase in December if October inflation data show persistent pressure in core prices. He warned that delivering only a 25-basis-point increase could undermine the Fed's credibility if core inflation remains stubbornly high, though he currently leans toward a smaller increase if inflation improves.
What are the current Kalshi odds for a US Treasury Bitcoin purchase this year?
Kalshi odds for a US Treasury Bitcoin purchase this year have climbed to 13%. The market reflects speculation that Washington could move beyond its existing Bitcoin reserve framework and acquire additional BTC, though no official policy announcement has been made.
